The Battle

I just had a birthday. In this era of social media I found myself warmly embraced. Thanks to all who called, e-mailed, facebooked, sung on conference calls etc.

Before I get into my main birthday-related point I should say that I am mostly posting elsewhere these days and apologize that this blog has largely fallen into disuse. I occasionally post at Jewschool.com. You can find my feed here. I also have gotten into Labornerd where I post occasionally under a super-secret pseudonym. So check me out in those places.

Now, back to my story. My parents came to town for my birthday. We had a few great meals and hunted for wedding venues for a bit. Then we ran a couple errands. When they departed I used a newly learned skill (thanks Aba!) to fix some scratches in the floor with polyurethane. This experience worried me greatly. By itself, fixing one's floor isn't worrisome. What is worrisome is the satisfaction and happiness it provided. I fear that I am now in the waning years of my fight against being grown up.

Souter and Specter

A few quick thoughts on recent events:

• Specter switched due to polling. (obvious)
  
• I prefer him as a Dem than as Rep but I'd prefer a real Democrat. (nothing new here).
• If Specter isn't the key vote on cloture for several major issues (un-rigging labor law, healthcare, judges) then he will get a serious primary opponent. Perhaps Allyson Schwartz.
• He may get a decently top-tier challenge anyways from Joe Sestak.
• Sestak is a telegenic former Navy Vice Admiral and would run well statewide, but I have an inkling that we could get someone a bit more progressive.
• Whether Schwartz, Sestak or someone else, that person might sit a long time. The state is now solidly blue and trending bluer.
  
• Lots of Dems are pissed that Specter is getting to carryover his seniortiy.
• I suggest they give him .5 years of Dem Seniority for every year he has been in the Senate. That way, he won't get any major chairmanships ahead of Feingold, Boxer, Mikulski, etc and won't be a Senator long enough for the deal to screw young Senators. Arlen might accept the deal in order to get a prominent sub-committee chairmanship.
  
• Here is the seniority list of the Senate Judiciary Committee. Hatch has occasionally been very reasonable. I wonder how he will perfrom as Ranking Minority Member.
• We really, really don't want the guy who presided over the Alito and Roberts processes chairing Judiciary if Leahy swings to Approps.
• How did the Souter news impact Specter's decesion?
• Shouldn't we have extracted a deal where by he would have supported our candidates as a Republican and given a bipartisan veneer?
• Specter must have known this was coming down the pike. It wasn't much of a secret. I, for intance, am very much out of the loop, especially on SCOTUS, and heard rumors starting before pesach.
  

25 Best Days

People often worry about down markets and investing in them.
Once the market is down, it generally has some of it's best days of growth on the way up.

This makes a teaching from Ramit Sethi especially timely:

From 1970-2006 (the period studied) the average return of the S&P 500 was 11.1%. In that 36 year period, what would your return have been if you missed the best 25 days (less than 1 day per year)?

Was it 11.0%? 10.7%? 8.4%? 7.6%?

Think about it for a minute and then check the excerpt from his book below.

From Ramit's book: “Recently, a group called Dimensional Funds studied the performance of the S&P 500 from January 1970 to December 2006, during which time the annualized return of the market was 11.1%. They also noted something amazing: Of those 36 years from 1970 to 1986, if you missed the 25 days when the stock market performed the best, your return would have dropped from 11.1% to 7.6%, a crippling difference."

Better than a Nursing Home at half the cost

I read this wonderful piece A faithful diner's last will and condiments in the LA Times. It's about a guy who spent decades of his life eating three meals a day at a small college in Southern California.

Over the years, the gray-haired man in the short-sleeved plaid shirt became a legend at the 2,200-student university, where -- over a plate of Swedish meatballs and a large bowl of soft-serve ice cream -- he would hold court in the crowded dining hall. Lindsay befriended students and dispensed Depression-era advice to anyone who would listen: Respect your parents, never drink or smoke, be frugal, save money.

It just seems like such a fun way to age, imparting wisdom, and spending time in a vibrant atmosphere. Acting as a source of institutional memory and serving as a student advocate. He loved the community so much that he donated his estate to the college. Read the story. It's totally sweet.

Getting a Deal

It was our office intern's birthday today so several of us took her out for lunch. It took 40 minutes or so for our food to come and so I asked for the manager and said, "our food eventually came and we enjoyed it but it took 45 minutes. Can you please offer us a discount," and handed him the bill. A few minutes later he came to our table with a 20% reduced bill. They asked me to explain a bit how I worked it out. I think there are a few things to keep in mind when asking for a discount based on poor service, performance, etc:

1) Ask.

It is unlikely the manager knew we had waited that long and the bill didn't come with a discount. You aren't out much by asking so you mine-as-well. In this case, as with most, the manager was happy to offer a discount in the hopes that we would return and spread the word that they were accommodating rather than had poor service.

2) Make sure to talk with someone who has the authority to grant your request.

In the case I mentioned above, this meant realizing it wasn't the server's fault and she probably couldn't offer us a discount, so I found the manager.

3) Have them make the first offer.

The manager has a better sense of what is reasonable than I do so I punt to him. I didn't say "i'd like $10 off" just that I'd like a discount. It's very hard for him to say no to a discount of any sort and once he has mentally committed to it, he'll likely make a decent offer. You appear nice, and then have room to bargain further.

4) Be Nice.

This is implicit in 3. I made sure to point out that the food was good. It's embarassing for a manager who care's about his/her business to find out about an instance of poor service or performance. Everyone does better when negative (constructive) feedback is tempered with the positive.

The main takeaway here is that the key is asking. Do it nicely and make sure it's to the right person and you'll get plenty of discounts in the years to come.

Ganjmentum

Nate Silver has a good piece up about the increasing popularity of marijuana legalization. Apparently the numbers have been on the rise for the last twenty years and now are roughly 42 in favor and 50 against. Here is his chart:


These polls are usually based on a simple permutation of "Do you favor or oppose the legalization of marijuana." I doubt most respondents have heard the best arguments in favor (or perhaps against). The result is that they answer based on whether they think marijuana is harmful or not particularly harmful rather than thinking through how a thing being legal or illegal impacts its incidence. If someone was framiliar with these three arguments (my favorites) I bet they'd be a lot more than 42% likely to support legalization of marijuana (or at least decriminalization):

1. Tough on Crime When we prohibited alcohol it led to the rapid expansion and increasing violence of gangs because they had a natural market. LEgalizing marijuana would hurt the multi-national gangs that sometimes sell it.
2. Makes it Safer The biggest health risk with marijuana is foreign additives like rat poison (rare but dangerous). If it was legal and FDA regulated, people could be much surer of the safety or non-safety of a specific package. Since usage would be unlikely to change much from legalization this would be a good way to make the public safer.
   
3. Save money, make money. Because it would be sold in more conventional ways, marijuana would be taxed and the US would generate billions of a dollars in revenues. Lord know we could use the money. I'd force a % of it into education. The US has more non-violent drug offenders locked up than there are people imprisoned for all crimes in all of Europe. It is very costly to lock people up. We'd save almost as much money from not locking up marijuana users as we would gain from the tax. The economic impacts taken together are very powerful.

I just don't see many good arguments on the other side. Perhaps the best is that it is thought that if marijuana was legalized it would become more convenient to purchase and thus be used more resulting in other problems.

Inauguration

Wow, what a day!

Wake up 5:50 AM
We serve coffee and outmeal to the 7 people staying at our place. Thankfully the Fire Marshall didn't show (this will be a recurring theme of the day).

Leave house 6:35

Arrive Metro 6:40

Get on first train toward Branch Avenue 6:45

Arrive L'Enfant Plaza 7:00
This is when the problems start. People can move through the exit gates (if all 8 are set for exiting) faster than they can move up the stairs to street level. So, to keep from having people get knocked up the stairs, they only opened the exit gates every few minutes for about 30 seconds. This was smart and would have been even smarter if they communicated what was going on. All we could see (Pilar, Becca, and I) was that we were in a mass of thousands of people, pressed close enough that i didn't need to hold our newsaper, i could just leave it pinned between other people and my jacket. It was an awful feeling to have no idea what was going on and have no motion for 5 minutes at a time as the crowd grew larger and more unruly. Chants of "let us out" were much more commons than anything patriotic. (Again, thankfully the Fire Marshall was absent from the scene. I can't imagine they would have approved)

Exit L'Enfant Plaza 8:00
We next got ourselves to the Silver Ticket line. At that point it was about 4 blocks long. It was totally stangnant and then starter moving at a jogging pace. Again, no communication, but at least this time there was much progress.

Enter The Silver Section ~8:40
I eventually got patted down and let in to our section. We were right by the first jumbotron and about 500 feet from the main show on the Capitol steps. It was pretty slow at first but we had some good space, set down newspapers and set up camp. It was about 22 degrees or so and we were bundled up. Becca and Pilar felt it was time to pass the time in song. We kicked out This Land is Your Land and as we started some mid-late 20s folks from Foggy Bottom joined in as did an older Black lady from Texas and several other nearby people. The older lady had some other suggestions and seemed to know all the lyrics to every song suggested. It turns out she was an elementary school music teacher in Texas.

Innauguration Begins
The actual program was probably seen by just about everyone so I won't get too much into the specifics, just crowd reactions that might not have been clear on TV.
Biggest booing of the day: Lieberman (way more than Bush or Cheney). I found this surprising but am no fan of any of the three myself.
When Bush entered there were lots of boos. Many bursted out with sha-na-na-na sha-na-na-na hey hey hey goodbye. It was sweet and cathartic.
Obama seemed to trip up the swearing in but we later found out that Roberts had actually erred.

To get home we walked to Waterfront Metro and headed for home.

All told, it was a day for the ages. The logistics were terrible. Imagine leaving a baseball game but 50 times worse and 10 times as long. The program, though was worth it. To be part of such a moment was perhaps a once in a lifetime oppurtunity and one we happily accepted. I sincerely hope that this is a real inflection point in American politics. We shall see.

Eagles Review

This past year was an incredible run that showed heart, shocking failure, and unexpected victory, all punctuated with piercing heartbreaking loss.

Looking forward, the Eagles have more draftpicks that any other football team (10), including 1.22, 1.28, 2.22, 3.22, 4.22, 5.5, 5.22, 6.22, 6.23, and 7.22. If you were to trade all their extra picks for a single pick, using the NFL chart, they'd be worth (660+39.5+19.2=718.7) roughly the 25th pick in the first round.

Now, to review there areas of need:

QB: McNabb had a terrible first half against the Cardinals and needs to improve his consistency but is the best chance we have to win next year. His backups are fine. We may see a late-round flyer since Andy likes to draft QBs in that way but nothing should come on the first day.

RB: Buck is probably heading out since he wants a bigger role (and should get one somewhere). 36 is getting old and his game has been becoming less scary. He needs to take fewer carries. It's time to draft a better version of Ryan Moats to learn from Westbrook and take over at the end of the 2010 season. Westrbook is a great blocker and this shouldn't be overlooked. Eckel seems fine as a third-RB. I'd assume we'd draft a back in the first three rounds. Here are some profiles.

WR: Baskett should no longer be thought of as a future starter. He dropped too many important balls in the playoffs. That said he is fine at number 4. Avant is perfect for number 3. Curtis and Jackson are good for #s 1 and 2. That leaves me wondering about Greg Lewis and Reggie Brown. I wonder if we can trade Brown and the Panther pick to get to a middle pick in the first round.

TE: We need a guy who attracts defenseive attention and can block LBs well and DE's decently well. Tough set of skills to combine, I know, but this is a probable use of a first round pick.

O-Line: I think Runyan and Thomas have lost some of their oomph. One or both should be let go based on film study. The running game was mediocre in the playoffs and used to be a strength. My gut is that Runyan goes, Herrmans slots in at RT and Cole/MJG slides in at LG. How has dunlap been progressing? Any signs of life from Justice?

D-Line: Looks very good. If we move Klecko back to rush on passing downs then Howard may get cut. Johnson would love Peppers but I think we may need to budget more money towards the offense. We only get Peppers if we can get some picks for Lito.

LBs: It's be great to get a Will-LB and have Jordan be the 4th guy and rotate.

CBs: If Jack Ikegwuono looks good, then lets trade Lito and resign Joselio. Can we get a 3d rounder? That'd be great.

FS: Is Demps good enough to take over? If not, this is a high priority for a using a first-round or second-round pick.

SS: Mikell is good. Condesine seems like a mediocre backup but it's too expensive to have great backups everywhere.

P: Rocca is golden. Needs practice punting in bad conditions.

K: Akers looked terrible at Arizona (in a dome no less) and will get some stiff competition. Unlikely but possible scenario: we use a late-round pick on a kicker.

Heroes are Usually Union Members

Alan directed me to this great account of the USAir crash and heroic campaign that successfully saved everyone. I was at LaGuardia earlier in the day for work and the conditions were really lousy. Anyways, in times like these it is wonderful to appreciate people who go above and beyond, sublimating selfishness to a real sense of duty, like the pilot who went the whole length of the plane twice to ensure everyone was off before he left. The frigid waters were pouring in and he insisted on being the last one off.
Amidst all the hoopla and media coverage i didn't hear the word "union" once. It is therefor quite notable, as EmptyWheel points out that almost all the folks who saved the lives are union and the safety training they have gotten was bargained for by the union's for exactly this reason. In tough negotiations many members have forgone raises to keep safety training when the boss has forced us to decide. So thank god for that.
Here is Emptywheel's post:

They're calling it a miracle--the successful landing of a US Airways jet in the Hudson and subsequent rescue of all 155 passengers. They're detailing the heroism of all involved, starting with the pilot and including cabin crew, ferry crews, and first responders. What they're not telling you is that just about every single one of these heros is a union member.

There's the pilot:

What might have been a catastrophe in New York — one that evoked the feel if not the scale of the Sept. 11 attack — was averted by a pilot’s quick thinking and deft maneuvers,

[snip]

On board, the pilot, Chesley B. Sullenberger III, 57, unable to get back to La Guardia, had made a command decision to avoid densely populated areas and try for the Hudson,

[snip]

When all were out, the pilot walked up and down the aisle twice to make sure the plane was empty, officials said.

Sullenberger is a former national committee member and the former safety chairman for the Airline Pilots Association and now represented by US Airline Pilots Association. He--and his union--have fought to ensure pilots get the kind of safety training to pull off what he did yesterday.

Then there are the flight attendants:

One passenger, Elizabeth McHugh, 64, of Charlotte, seated on the aisle near the rear, said flight attendants shouted more instructions: feet flat on the floor, heads down, cover your heads.

They are members of the Association of Flight Attendants-CWA. Yesterday's accident should remind all of us that flight attendants are first and foremost safety professionals--they should not be treated like cocktail waitresses.

There are the air traffic controllers:

The pilot radioed air traffic controllers on Long Island that his plane had sustained a “double bird strike.”

They're represented by the National Air Traffic Controllers Association. Someday, they'll rename National Airport for the work these men and women do to keep us safe in the air.

There are the ferry crews:

As the first ferry nudged up alongside, witnesses said, some passengers were able to leap onto the decks. Others were helped aboard by ferry crews.

They're represented by the Seafarers International Union. They provide safety training to their members so they're prepared for events like yesterday's accident.

There are the cops and firemen:

Helicopters brought wet-suited police divers, who dropped into the water to help with the rescues.

They're represented by the Patrolmen's Benevolent Association and the Uniformed Firefighters Association and Uniformed Fire Officers Association (IAFF locals).They're the men and women who performed so heroically on 9/11--and they've been fighting to make sure first responders get the equipment to do this kind of thing.

Bob Corker and Richard Shelby like to claim that union labor is a failed business model.

But I haven't heard much about Bob Corker and Richard Shelby saving 155 people's lives.